Monetary Reality

Sources & Data Methodology

Every claim on this site should be traceable to a public data source. Here's where the data comes from, how we use it, and what standards we hold ourselves to.

Our Commitment

Credibility requires transparency. If we make a claim, you should be able to verify it. If we make a mistake, we want to know. This page documents every data source we use, how we use it, and the methodological standards we apply.

We are not a peer-reviewed journal, but we aspire to that level of rigor. Every chart on this site cites its data source. Every historical claim is traceable. Every counterargument we are aware of is acknowledged.

Data Sources

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)

fred.stlouisfed.org

The primary source for U.S. monetary and economic data. Maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Data used on this site

  • •M1, M2, and M3 money supply aggregates
  • •Federal funds rate and Treasury yields
  • •GDP (nominal and real)
  • •Consumer Price Index (CPI-U and CPI-W)
  • •Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index
  • •Federal debt and deficit data
  • •Household net worth and debt levels

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

www.bls.gov

The U.S. government agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes.

Data used on this site

  • •Consumer Price Index — detailed category breakdowns
  • •Average hourly and weekly earnings
  • •Employment and unemployment data
  • •Producer Price Index

World Bank Open Data

data.worldbank.org

Global development data covering economies, populations, and financial systems worldwide.

Data used on this site

  • •International inflation rates and GDP growth
  • •Monetary aggregates for non-U.S. economies
  • •Purchasing power parity comparisons
  • •Government debt-to-GDP ratios by country

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

www.bis.org/statistics

The central bank for central banks. Publishes global credit, banking, and financial statistics.

Data used on this site

  • •Global credit to the non-financial sector
  • •International banking statistics
  • •Property price statistics
  • •Central bank balance sheet data

U.S. Treasury Department

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Official U.S. government fiscal data — debt, revenue, and spending.

Data used on this site

  • •Total public debt outstanding
  • •Monthly Treasury Statement (revenue and outlays)
  • •Treasury auction results and yield data
  • •Historical debt-to-GDP ratios

S&P Dow Jones Indices / Case-Shiller

www.spglobal.com/spdji

Leading provider of U.S. equity and housing price indices.

Data used on this site

  • •S&P 500 historical performance (for asset inflation analysis)
  • •Case-Shiller Home Price Index
  • •Total return indices (including dividends)

Historical Archives

For case studies predating modern statistical agencies, we rely on academic research, primary sources, and recognized historical databases.

Data used on this site

  • •Measuringworth.com — long-run historical economic data
  • •Academic papers on Roman coin composition analysis
  • •Cagan (1956) hyperinflation data
  • •Hanke & Krus (2012) World Hyperinflation Table
  • •Primary source archives for Weimar, France, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela

Methodological Standards

Citation

Every data visualization cites its source. Every factual claim is traceable to a specific dataset, paper, or primary source. Where data is estimated or interpolated, we say so explicitly.

Inflation Adjustment

When we adjust for inflation, we specify which deflator is used (CPI-U, PCE, GDP deflator, etc.) and the base year. We also note where we believe standard deflators understate or overstate real effects, and why.

Correlation vs Causation

When two data series move together, we say "correlated," not "caused by." When we make a causal argument, we explain the mechanism — not just the statistical relationship. Correlation is a starting point for investigation, not a conclusion.

Acknowledging Limits

Economics is not physics. Data is imperfect, models are simplified, and reasonable people disagree. We present the strongest version of our argument while acknowledging the strongest counterarguments. If we are wrong about something, we want to correct it — not defend it.

Correction Policy

If you find an error — factual, methodological, or interpretive — we want to hear about it. Corrections will be made transparently, with a note explaining what changed and why. Getting it right matters more than being right.

A Note on Alternative Inflation Measures

We reference CPI throughout this site because it is the standard measure most people encounter. But we are aware of its limitations — hedonic adjustments, substitution effects, the treatment of housing costs — and we discuss them in the Deep Dives section. Where alternative measures (ShadowStats, Chapwood Index, PCE) tell a meaningfully different story, we note the difference.